Tournament Bracket
Click any matchup to override the winner. Probabilities update in real time.
Tournament Insights
Most Likely Champion
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Biggest Upset Chance
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Avg Upsets per Tournament
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per 10,000 simulations
Win Probabilities
Click column headers to sort. Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
| Seed | Team | 1st Rd % | Qtrs % | Semis % | Win % | Exp. Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liberty | — | ||||
| 2 | Sam Houston | — | ||||
| 3 | Western Kentucky | — | ||||
| 4 | Louisiana Tech | — | ||||
| 5 | Middle Tennessee | — | ||||
| 6 | Kennesaw State | — | ||||
| 7 | Jacksonville St | — | ||||
| 8 | FIU | — | ||||
| 9 | Missouri State | — | ||||
| 10 | New Mexico State | — |
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Head-to-Head Calculator
Select any two teams to see win probability.
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VS
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Path Explorer
Select a team to see their conditional win probability at each stage.